乐晓辉 林雄斌 杨家文

Le Xiaohui, Lin Xiongbin, Yang Jiawen

关键词：小汽车限牌；经济分析；社会效益评估

Keywords：Car Plate Restriction; Economic Analysis; Social Benefits Analysis

摘要：

我国一些大城市已经采取小汽车牌照限制政策来应对城市快速机动化下交通问题的挑战，但这些政策实施的社会效益和需要进一步完善的政策细节缺乏系统的评估。本文在梳理各城市限牌政策的具体内容和实施影响的基础上，构建一般社会效益评估的模型框架，对竞价、摇号、混合等限牌模式进行社会效益的经济学分析，并与不限牌模式和理想限牌模式进行对比。另外，结合该政策探讨其对城市区域一体化发展和社会不同群体的影响。结果表明，在交通问题日益显著的背景下，限牌可显著提升社会效益，而且理论模型显示“竞价”方式的社会效益更优。然而，无论是强调效率还是公平，竞价还是摇号，现有方案都需要一系列配套政策，应在实际操作过程中不断完善，以提升政策实施的效果。因此，政府需在限牌政策模式和细则制定、小汽车使用管理、公共交通体系完善和政策信息透明化等做出协同改善。

Abstract：

In response to rapid motorization and severe traffic congestion, a few cities in China have adopted policies to restrict car ownership. Little work however has been done to evaluate the social benefit of such policies. This paper uses economic models to analyze the social benefits of different versions of vehicle plate restriction policies. It concludes that the plate auction system yields a higher social benefit than the hybrid one, which in turn higher than the lottery system. But social equity should also be taken into consideration in policies. In order to improve social benefit, city governments should prioritize auction and pay more attention to policy details at the same time.

乐晓辉，北京大学硕士研究生。1401213711@pku.edu.cn

林雄斌，北京大学博士研究生。linxiongbin@sz.pku.edu.cn

杨家文（通信作者），北京大学教授，博士生导师，“鹏城学者”长期特聘教授。yangjw@pkusz.edu.cn

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