蒋存妍 袁青 于婷婷

Jiang Cunyan, Yuan Qing, Yu Tingting

关键词：气候变化 ；气候适应 ；不确定性 ；动态适应性规划 ； 国际经验

Keywords：Climate Change; Climate Adaptation; Uncertainty; Dynamic Adaptive Planning; International Experience

摘要：

目前，我国虽开展了气候适应性规划工作，但在应对气候变 化不确定性方面仍考虑不足。本文深入分析与总结了发达国家地区 和城市在应对气候变化不确定性时所采取的动态适应性规划措施， 主要包含气候情景预测分析、政策措施分级响应、灾害风险监控预 警、社区利益主体参与四个方面。同时，本文依托相对成熟的国内 外气候适应性规划体系，构建了城市应对气候变化不确定性的动态 适应性规划框架，并提出了对我国气候变化适应性规划工作的启示。

Abstract：

At present, China has carried out some works on urban adaptation to climate change, but insufficient consideration has been given to the dynamic and uncertainty of climate change. The paper analyzes the dynamic adaptive planning practice of regions and cities in the developed countries coping with the uncertainty of climate change from four aspects: climate scenario prediction and analysis, hierarchical response of policy measures, disaster risk monitoring and early warning, and stakeholder community participation. In addition, combined with the relatively mature climate adaptation planning process at home and abroad, this paper constructs a dynamic adaptive planning framework for cities to cope with the uncertainty of climate change, and advances the enlightenment for China’s climate change adaptation planning.

蒋存妍，博士，哈尔滨工业大学建筑学院，寒地城乡人居环境 科学与技术工业和信息化部重点实验室，师资博士后（讲师）。 hit_jcy@163.com  

袁青（通信作者），博士，哈尔滨工业大学建筑学院，寒地城 乡人居环境科学与技术工业和信息化部重点实验室，教授。 hityq@126.com  

于婷婷，博士，哈尔滨工业大学建筑学院，寒地城乡人居环境 科学与技术工业和信息化部重点实验室，师资博士后（讲师）。 hitytting@hit.edu.cn

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