焦熙和

Jiao Xihe

关键词：土地利用与交通交互模型；物流活动；分销渠道； 嵌套式评定模型；空间输入输出模型；货运模型

Keywords：LUTI Model; Logistic Movement; Distribution Channel; Nested Logit Model; Spatial Input Output Model; Freight Model

摘要：

城市货运是城市经济活动中的一个重要组成部分，也是典型的土地利用与交通规划相互结合的研究课题，亦是土地利用与交通交互模型的主要应用领域之一。关于货运模型的研究起始于1970 年代，时至今日全世界已有上百种城市货运模型，但其在规划实践中的运用仍十分有限，主要原因是物流活动的复杂性以及数据的局限性。大多数货运模型止于对起始地（工厂、农田、港口）和最终消费终端（消费者）的模拟，忽略了中间复杂的分销过程，而这样会导致对货物相关类经济活动（土地利用）的明显低估。本文首先对各种类型货运交通模型作简要回顾；然后以英国城市科学有限公司研发的“城市科学国家货运模型”为实例，深入剖析货运交通模型的搭建过程及其运用；最后归纳总结英国国家货运用地与交通模型的先进性和局限性，并为在国内搭建类似模型提出针对性方法并给出数据整合方面的具体建议。

Abstract：

Logistics and related freight movements is an essential part of urban economic activities. It is highly relevant to both land use and transport planning interventions. Therefore, it is the area where Land Use and Transport Interaction (LUTI) model has been extensively applied. The earliest freight model was developed in the 1970s. Since then there are more than 100 freight models have been developed. However, the application of freight model in practice is very limited, freight modelling is focusing on production and consumption. Transport logistics hubs that are primarily used for distribution seem to be not considered adequately in most freight models. Those hubs are crucial for freight movements. Failure to capture the distribution channel adequately will result in underestimating the goods movement significantly.This paper firstly reviews how freight modelling have been studied systematically. Then using the UK national freight model developed by City Science as an example to depict how the City Science Nation Freight Model (CSNFM) was developed in detail. In the final section, the paper is concluded with a number of suggestions on developing freight models in China and directions for future research.

焦熙和，博士，英国城市科学有限公司（City Science），首席模型顾问。joshua.jiao@cityscience.com

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