窦寅 张尚武

Dou Yin, Zhang Shangwu

关键词：情景分析；文献计量；研究综述；知识图谱；引文空间

Keywords：Scenario Analysis; Bibliometrics; Research Review; Mapping Knowledge Domains; CiteSpace

摘要：

情景分析作为一项应对发展不确定性的规划方法，1990 年代起被系统运用于城市规划领域，随着城市发展所面临的环境愈加复杂，情景分析的作用将进一步凸显。采用CiteSpace 分析工具，笔者对Web of Science 和中国知网1991—2020 年的文献数据进行计量分析，对国内外情景分析方法在城市规划中应用的进展、热点、趋势和应用领域进行总结。之后，对比国内外主要应用领域的差异，并对情景分析在我国城市规划实践中的应用进行了展望：拓展应用领域和理性规划研究方法，强化方案绩效评价和优化决策过程，综合智能规划技术构建推演分析平台，以及推动新技术在国土空间规划中的集成。

Abstract：

As a planning method to cope with development uncertainty, scenario analysis has been systematically applied in the field of urban planning since the 1990s. The current urban development faces more complex environment, and the role of scenario analysis will be further highlighted. This paper summarizes the progress, hot spots, trends and application areas of scenario analysis methods applied in urban planning at home and abroad by using the CiteSpace analysis tool and bibliometrics analysis of literature data from 1991 to 2020 in WoS and CNKI respectively. Then, the differences between the main application areas at home and abroad are compared, and the application of scenario analysis in urban planning practice in China is prospected that expand application fields and rational planning research methods, strengthen planning performance evaluation and decision-making process optimization, integrate intelligent planning technology to build a deduction and analysis platform, and promote the integration of new technologies in spatial planning.

窦寅，同济大学建筑与城市规划学院，博士研究生。douyin@tongji.edu.cn
张尚武（通信作者），博士，同济大学建筑与城市规划学院，教授；上海同济城市规划设计研究院有限公司，院长；自然资源部国土空间智能规划重点实验室，主任。zhshangwu@tongji.edu.cn

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